Investment Advisory Services offered through Private Wealth Asset Management
1901 Howard Street, Suite 312 Omaha, Nebraska 68102
www.privatewealth.com
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March Insights
Greetings!
The month of March is always interesting in terms of weather. You are never quite sure what you are going to get each day, and trying to forecast more than one hour ahead is a difficult task. That sounds much like our financial markets these days.
I can give you a passionate, well-researched and compelling case for the markets to move more than 10% in both directions. The difficulty level is so high, I asked my magic eight ball all the following questions:
The magic eight ball consistently answered, “Reply hazy, try again.”
One thing that is not hazy is the current yield curve. The chart below shows the relationship between the yield of the 2-year Treasury versus the 10-year Treasury. As I write this note, the yield of the 2-year Treasury is 4.95%. The yield of the 10-year Treasury is 3.96%. In normal markets, the longer the maturity of your bond, the higher the yield you earn for that investment.
The term for the current situation is “inversion,” and it reinforces what everyone is talking about these days. Inverted yields are not a good sign for financial markets. It indicates a recession could be near.
In each case below, a recession followed shortly after the yields inverted. And some of those recessions included significant market events. To me, the better question is, “Will our next recession (there is always one coming) be shallow or deep?”
While each of the previous cases of inversion preceded a recession, a new bull market began right after the recession, and some of those bull markets were long and profitable for investors. Outlook hazy indeed!
Let’s consult with the magic eight ball again:
Have a great month of March!
Brett
This presentation is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer of personal investment advice. It does not account for your specific objectives, situation or needs, and no binding obligation to enter into any transaction with you is to be implied. Please note that PW or its Investment Adviser Representative(s) may trade for their own accounts and consequently, be invested on the opposite side of the market from your order(s) or have long or short positions in the securities referenced.
Investing involves risk, including loss of investment principal. Using a specific strategy or investment advice does not assure earning a profit or avoiding a loss.
PW and Fiducient Advisors are independent entities. There is no form of partnership or legal affiliation between PW and Fiducient Advisors nor is such a relationship created or implied by the information herein.
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